As the Philippine Cup portion of PBA Season 50 inches closer to the finals, it is time to take a look at all four teams currently competing in the semifinals: the San Miguel Beermen, Barangay Ginebra, TNT Tropang 5G, and Meralco Bolts.
San Miguel vs. Ginebra
The Beermen entered this season as the overwhelming favorites to repeat, and it is completely understandable why.
June Mar Fajardo, the nine-time PBA MVP, remains one of the most dominant players in the PBA, anchoring the team on both ends of the floor. His presence in the paint forces opponents to collapse defenses, creating open looks for perimeter shooters and secondary creators — a strategy that proved pivotal in their Philippine Cup title run last season.
Meanwhile, the core around “The Kraken” remained intact and continued to develop throughout this season, which they started on a 0-2 slate. CJay Perez thrived in his role as the No. 2 option behind Fajardo, while Don Trollano improved his offensive and defensive aggression. Key contributions from supporting pieces, Jericho Cruz, Juami Tiongson, and veterans Marcio Lassiter and Chris Ross helped secure the top spot.
Despite their dominance, the Beermen’s main pain point is their outside shooting, which they need to find consistency in as soon as possible against a Barangay Ginebra team that is not afraid to keep shooting from the three and four-point line.
On the other side, Ginbera is as reliant as ever on their “never say die” mantra that has kept them a formidable foe in Season 50.
We all saw that first-hand when they went toe-to-toe with the Converge FiberXers in the quarterfinals, negating the Juan Gomez de Liaño-led squad’s twice-to-beat advantage to secure a spot in the best-of-7 series with the Beermen.
Leading the charge for Ginebra is Scottie Thompson, whose presence as a Russell Westbrook-lite guard that can shoot threes and even the occasional four-pointer keeps the team going. Surprisingly, Japeth Aguilar has played a pivotal role as well this season, holding down the paint against the PBA’s next generation of bigs.
Point guard RJ Abarrientos, Thompson’s backcourt mate, has been running the show with ease for Ginebra, putting up solid stat lines while also being a menace on defense. With those core three being supported by the likes of Stephen Holt, Jeremiah Gray, Norbert Torres, and rookie standout Sonny Estil, Ginebra is raring to knock off the Beermen and punch their ticket into the finals.
However, they are not without their weaknesses either. Ginebra’s tough-nosed defense often leads to them being prone to foul trouble, which the FiberXers exploited and forced Aguilar and Thompson to be disqualified from their overtime thriller in the pivotal win-or-go-home matchup.
TNT vs. Meralco
Without a doubt in any Filipino basketball fan’s mind, the TNT Tropang 5G entered PBA Season 50 with the most talent-rich and offensively gifted roster among all teams.
Calvin Oftana is the heart and soul of this TNT team, thanks to his prowess on both ends of the floor, while also being a superstar talent on the wing due to his athleticism. Every possession that TNT has while he’s on the floor practically runs through him, and that’s partially why they finished the eliminations with an 11-3 record — same as the league-leading San Miguel Beermen.
With a supporting cast led by Jordan Heading, RR Pogoy, Brandon Ganuelas-Rosser and the long-time veteran in Kelly Williams, the Tropang 5G just cannot be counted out. Factor in Rey Nambatac turning into a whole different monster in the playoffs, and it is no surprise why TNT is on many fans’ lists as a surefire Finals team.
There’s a reason why they made it into the Finals of all three conferences last season, winning the Governor’s and Commissioner’s Cup, while coming in as runner-ups to the San Miguel Beermen in the Philippine Cup.
Despite all those positives, TNT has shown that they are susceptible to teams playing physical, half-court basketball. If opponents were to slow the pace down to an uncomfortable degree, they often struggle to find their rhythm.
But based on their current 2-0 lead over the Meralco Bolts, the Chot Reyes-coached squad appears to have already solved their problems and found stability, which they aim to ride all the way to another Philippine Cup Finals appearance.
As for the Meralco Bolts, they are just two seasons removed from winning their first-ever title in franchise history, that being the 2024 PBA Philippine Cup. Heading into Season 50, the goal is to add another trophy to their display case.
Chris Newsome is still the alpha dog of the Bolts based on production, but he has needed the help of others to step up and help match his numbers. This is where CJ Cansino comes in. The 26-year-old has been pivotal in their Philippine Cup campaign this season, and he will once again be relied upon to help dig the Bolts out of their current 2-0 hole against TNT.
Aside from those two names, Meralco head coach Luigi Trillo will surely ask more from his key players in Bong Quinto, Chris Banchero, Brandon Bates, and his veterans in Cliff Hodge and Raymond Almazan as they seek a bounce-back.
The Bolts’ main point for improvement is their go-to scorer. Sure, Newsome and Cansino can pick up points with relative ease, but if they’re not on the floor or they have a cold shooting night, their offense tends to stall.
However, the counterpoint is that their team-centric basketball has helped them find success this season, as evidenced by a 6-5 record to enter the postseason. Their resiliency was on full display against the Rain or Shine Elasto Painters in the quarterfinals, whom they beat twice to reach the semis.
Finals Matchup Prediction
All of that is well and good from a basketball standpoint, but here comes the Daily Fantasy aspect of things: which Finals matchup will be the most competitive and also generate the most fantasy points (FPs).
According to the data that we have, the best-case scenario for Daily Fantasy players is that the San Miguel Beermen go head-to-head with the TNT Tropang 5G.
As mentioned above, June Mar Fajardo is still the most dominant force in the PBA, and that’s proven by him always being a part of our top 10 PBA players every week based on average FPs. Additionally, he’s practically locked down the center spot in our weekly position MVPs list and is a consistent top FP scorer for the Beermen with an average of 47.66
With regards to TNT, Calvin Oftana often joins Fajardo in the weekly top 10 list since he averages the most FPs on the team with 29.92. For context, the player with the second-most FPs on TNT is Brandon Ganuelas-Rosser with 24.22.
San Miguel and TNT meeting for a second-straight time in the PBA Philippine Cup Finals would not only be exciting for Daily Fantasy players, but also for those looking forward to a competitive series.
Last season, their series went to six games, with them splitting the first two games. The Beermen then won the next two, before the Tropang 5G took Game 5, which led to a highly contested Game 6 that saw San Miguel fight tooth and nail to fend off a feisty TNT squad.
If they meet again in the Finals this time, it would surely be no different. TNT wants to get their revenge on the Beermen for crushing their dreams of a Grand Slam, while San Miguel is out to claim their 12th PBA Philippine Cup crown.
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